Updated: 353 PM 13 MAR 2017

– FULL CLOSING

Discussion:

As expected, Three Village Schools are closed Tuesday March 14.

Updated: 427 AM 13 MAR 2017

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Discussion:

Increasing full closing probability to 90% with growing confidence for blizzard conditions across Central Long Island.

Updated: 250 PM 12 MAR 2017

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Discussion:

A major coastal low is forecast to impact the region Tuesday, with a potential for blizzard conditions. Models are converging on a track consistent with all snow for Central Long Island and the chances for a changeover to rain are decreasing. As such, increasing the full closing chance while lowering the delayed opening chance. An early closing on the predicted low pressure track would require a huge shift in timing toward later onset, so the 40% is based mostly on the scenario where mixing with rain occurs.

Updated: 318 AM 12 MAR 2017

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Discussion:

A major coastal low is forecast to impact the region Tuesday, with a potential for blizzard conditions. Based on the most likely track of the low, precipitation should fall as all snow for Central Long Island. However, a track slightly to the west would result in a changeover to rain as the low pressure moves in.

At this time I am willing to state about 60% confidence in this being a large enough event to cancel school for a full day. Should the western track of the low become the likely scenario, there would be a possibility of a delayed opening if snow ends by late morning. Early closings are not favored with the timing so a blend of a late onset and west track scenario was used for those conditional probabilities.

Updated: 502 PM 09 MAR 2017

Discussion:

Adjustments being made to account for westward shift of heavier snowfall rates.

Updated: 237 PM 09 MAR 2017

Discussion:

Confidence is increasing for disruptive impacts to the morning commute. Increasing the probability of a delay to 50%.

Updated: 545 AM 09 MAR 2017

Discussion:

Models tonight have robustly increased the amount of snow for Friday, with 4-6 inches appearing likely, so increasing probability of a delay. Added a 10% chance of a full closing to take into account the small probability of a warning level event.

Updated: 328 PM 08 MAR 2017

Discussion:

Light snow is expected Friday resulting in accumulations of 1-3 inches. Given the low amounts and expected timing, there is a low probability of a delayed opening.

Updated: 501 PM 09 MAR 2017

Discussion:

Adjustments being made to account for westward shift of heavier snowfall rates.

Updated: 237 PM 09 MAR 2017

Discussion:

Confidence is increasing for disruptive impacts to the morning commute. Increasing the probability of a delay to 50%.

Updated: 545 AM 09 MAR 2017

Discussion:

Models tonight have robustly increased the amount of snow for Friday, with 4-6 inches appearing likely, so increasing probability of a delay. Added a 10% chance of a full closing to take into account the small probability of a warning level event.

Updated: 327 PM 08 MAR 2017

Discussion:

Light snow is expected Friday resulting in accumulations of 1-3 inches. Given the low amounts and expected timing, there is a low probability of a delayed opening.

Updated: 459 PM 09 MAR 2017

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Discussion:

Adjustments being made to account for westward shift of heavier snowfall rates.

Updated: 233 PM 09 MAR 2017

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Discussion:

Confidence is increasing for disruptive impacts to the morning commute. Increasing the probability of a delay to 65%. The only thing holding me from going higher is the fact that the overall timing of the event is not ideal for a delay, with the snow being spread across several hours lasting into early afternoon.

Updated: 543 AM 09 MAR 2017

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Discussion:

Models tonight have robustly increased the amount of snow for Friday, with 4-6 inches appearing likely. Added a 10% chance of a full closing to take into account the small possibility of a warning level event. A delayed opening would be likely given the expected totals, but the timing of the event makes that option somewhat unfavorable since snow will continue to fall well after the morning commute is over. Given these factors, I am increasing the numbers but am hesitant to make the combined probability of impacts any greater than 50% right now. Further changes throughout the day are highly likely.

Updated: 324 PM 08 MAR 2017

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Discussion:

Light snow is expected Friday resulting in accumulations of 1-3 inches. Given the low amounts and expected timing, there is a low probability of a delayed opening.

Updated: 322 PM 02 MAR 2017

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Discussion:

While convective snow squalls will be possible tomorrow, minimal impacts are expected. Lowering the probabilities of early closings.

Updated: 959 PM 01 MAR 2017

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Discussion:

There is a slight chance of an early closing or closing after school Friday due to a possible light snow event.

Updated: 1103 PM 09 FEB 2017

FULL CLOSING

Discussion:

SCCC is closed tomorrow.

Updated: 529 PM 09 FEB 2017

Discussion:

Following trends of nearby schools, increasing probabilities of impacts.

Updated: 1153 PM 08 FEB 2017

Discussion:

If snowfall totals Thursday end up on the high end of the distribution of uncertainty, impacts for Friday will be on the table. We will keep them on the low side for now and monitor the storm as it unfolds.

Updated: 1100 PM 09 FEB 2017

– DELAYED OPENING

Discussion:

A delayed opening until 10 am has been announced. There is a 40% chance of an upgrade to a full closing.

Updated: 528 PM 09 FEB 2017

Discussion:

To follow trends of nearby schools, increasing probabilities of impacts tomorrow.

Updated: 1152 PM 08 FEB 2017

Discussion:

If snowfall totals Thursday end up on the high end of the distribution of uncertainty, impacts for Friday will be on the table. We will keep them on the low side for now and monitor the storm as it unfolds.

Updated: 517 PM 09 FEB 2017

FULL CLOSING

Discussion:

TVCSD made an early call to close Friday.

Updated: 1150 PM 08 FEB 2017

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Discussion:

To make a very small change, it is necessary to account for the now approximately 10% chance of seeing snowfall totals Thursday exceed 16 inches. Such a scenario would likely cause a full closing Friday due to the amount of time that would be required to remove that amount of snow. Otherwise, probabilities are unchanged and favor a full day Friday.

Updated: 244 PM 08 FEB 2017

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Discussion:

With higher confidence of heavy impacts Thursday lasting into early evening hours, I am bumping up the probability of a delay Friday due to remnant icy conditions.

Updated: 338 AM 08 FEB 2017

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Discussion:

There is a slight chance of a delayed opening Friday given that snow will taper off late Thursday and temperatures will drop into the teens overnight, creating icy conditions.

Updated: 1048 PM 08 FEB 2017

– FULL CLOSING

Discussion:

All classes are cancelled for Thursday at Suffolk Community College.

Updated: 225 PM 08 FEB 2017

Discussion:

With ever growing confidence for a high impact event lasting the entire day tomorrow, increasing the probability of a full closing to 95%.

Updated: 415 AM 08 FEB 2017

Discussion:

High confidence is now present for a heavy snowfall, increasing the chance of a full closing Thursday. Between the remaining three possible scenarios (full opening, early closing, late opening) we will distribute evenly given the timing of the heaviest snow and small possibility of a sub-warning level event.

Updated: 347 PM 07 FEB 2017

Discussion:

Models are coming into better agreement of a heavy snowfall impact for Thursday, with enough accumulation to cancel school. Given this trend, I am adjusting the probabilities to slightly favor this scenario. A delayed opening is now unlikely given that the timing has shifted to have the heaviest impacts after the morning commute. Early closings would be likely, if school were to open.

Stay tuned for further updates as changes are highly likely.

Updated: 304 AM 07 FEB 2017

Discussion:

Predictions for Thursday are on the difficult side. As usual, there is uncertainty with regard to how much snow will accumulate. To complicate matters, however, is that it is not yet clear whether the heaviest impacts will occur before, during, or after the morning commute. Both of these factors will have obvious ramifications for how school may be impacted.

For now, I will go with a 25% chance of a warning-level event and school being closed. A delayed opening is more likely, but this would only happen if the heaviest snow occurs in the morning hours as current trends are pointing. If the timing shifts to a scenario where the heaviest snow will occur in the early afternoon, early closings may be on the table instead.

Updated: 222 PM 08 FEB 2017

All classes are cancelled for Thursday.

Updated: 414 AM 08 FEB 2017

Discussion:

High confidence is now present for a heavy snowfall, increasing the chance of a full closing Thursday. Between the remaining three possible scenarios (full opening, early closing, late opening) we will distribute evenly given the timing of the heaviest snow and small possibility of a sub-warning level event.

Updated: 346 PM 07 FEB 2017

Discussion:

Models are coming into better agreement of a heavy snowfall impact for Thursday, with enough accumulation to cancel school. Given this trend, I am adjusting the probabilities to slightly favor this scenario. A delayed opening is now unlikely given that the timing has shifted to have the heaviest impacts after the morning commute. Early closings would be likely, if school were to open.

Stay tuned for further updates as changes are highly likely.

Updated: 303 AM 07 FEB 2017

Discussion:

Predictions for Thursday are on the difficult side. As usual, there is uncertainty with regard to how much snow will accumulate. To complicate matters, however, is that it is not yet clear whether the heaviest impacts will occur before, during, or after the morning commute. Both of these factors will have obvious ramifications for how school may be impacted.

For now, I will go with a 25% chance of a warning-level event and school being closed. A delayed opening is more likely, but this would only happen if the heaviest snow occurs in the morning hours as current trends are pointing. If the timing shifts to a scenario where the heaviest snow will occur in the early afternoon, early closings may be on the table instead.