School: Three Village Central School DistrictImpact Date: TUE 14 MAR 2017Hazard Type: WINTERReturn to Home Page |

**Updated: 353 PM 13 MAR 2017**

**– FULL CLOSING**

**Discussion:**

As expected, Three Village Schools are closed Tuesday February 14.

**Updated: 427 AM 13 MAR 2017**

Probability of a FULL CLOSING | 90% |

Probability of a DELAYED OPENING | 5% |

Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING |
95% |

Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME | 5% |

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Probability of an EARLY CLOSING | 40% |

Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 20% |

Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL |
60% |

Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY | 40% |

**Discussion:**

Increasing full closing probability to 90% with growing confidence for blizzard conditions across Central Long Island.

**Updated: 250 PM 12 MAR 2017**

Probability of a FULL CLOSING | 75% |

Probability of a DELAYED OPENING | 5% |

Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING |
80% |

Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME | 20% |

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Probability of an EARLY CLOSING | 40% |

Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 20% |

Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL |
60% |

Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY | 40% |

**Discussion:**

A major coastal low is forecast to impact the region Tuesday, with a potential for blizzard conditions. Models are converging on a track consistent with all snow for Central Long Island and the chances for a changeover to rain are decreasing. As such, increasing the full closing chance while lowering the delayed opening chance. An early closing on the predicted low pressure track would require a huge shift in timing toward later onset, so the 40% is based mostly on the scenario where mixing with rain occurs.

**Updated: 318 AM 12 MAR 2017**

Probability of a FULL CLOSING | 60% |

Probability of a DELAYED OPENING | 10% |

Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING |
70% |

Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME | 30% |

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Probability of an EARLY CLOSING | 40% |

Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 20% |

Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL |
60% |

Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY | 40% |

**Discussion:**

A major coastal low is forecast to impact the region Tuesday, with a potential for blizzard conditions. Based on the most likely track of the low, precipitation should fall as all snow for Central Long Island. However, a track slightly to the west would result in a changeover to rain as the low pressure moves in.

At this time I am willing to state about 60% confidence in this being a large enough event to cancel school for a full day. Should the western track of the low become the likely scenario, there would be a possibility of a delayed opening if snow ends by late morning. Early closings are not favored with the timing so a blend of a late onset and west track scenario was used for those conditional probabilities.