School: Three Village Central School District
Impact Date: TUE 14 MAR 2017
Hazard Type: WINTER
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Updated: 353 PM 13 MAR 2017

– FULL CLOSING

Discussion:

As expected, Three Village Schools are closed Tuesday February 14.


Updated: 427 AM 13 MAR 2017

Probability of a FULL CLOSING 90%
Probability of a DELAYED OPENING 5%
Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING 95%
Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME 5%

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Probability of an EARLY CLOSING 40%
Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL 20%
Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL 60%
Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY 40%

Discussion:

Increasing full closing probability to 90% with growing confidence for blizzard conditions across Central Long Island.


Updated: 250 PM 12 MAR 2017

Probability of a FULL CLOSING 75%
Probability of a DELAYED OPENING 5%
Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING 80%
Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME 20%

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Probability of an EARLY CLOSING 40%
Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL 20%
Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL 60%
Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY 40%

Discussion:

A major coastal low is forecast to impact the region Tuesday, with a potential for blizzard conditions. Models are converging on a track consistent with all snow for Central Long Island and the chances for a changeover to rain are decreasing. As such, increasing the full closing chance while lowering the delayed opening chance. An early closing on the predicted low pressure track would require a huge shift in timing toward later onset, so the 40% is based mostly on the scenario where mixing with rain occurs.


Updated: 318 AM 12 MAR 2017

Probability of a FULL CLOSING 60%
Probability of a DELAYED OPENING 10%
Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING 70%
Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME 30%

In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…

Probability of an EARLY CLOSING 40%
Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL 20%
Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL 60%
Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY 40%

Discussion:

A major coastal low is forecast to impact the region Tuesday, with a potential for blizzard conditions. Based on the most likely track of the low, precipitation should fall as all snow for Central Long Island. However, a track slightly to the west would result in a changeover to rain as the low pressure moves in.

At this time I am willing to state about 60% confidence in this being a large enough event to cancel school for a full day. Should the western track of the low become the likely scenario, there would be a possibility of a delayed opening if snow ends by late morning. Early closings are not favored with the timing so a blend of a late onset and west track scenario was used for those conditional probabilities.

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