Updated: 315 PM 07 MAR 2018

EARLY CLOSING

Discussion:

An early closing was conducted today.

Updated: 432 AM 07 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

The chance of a full closing has essentially disappeared as forecast confidence in sub-warning level snowfall increased. Also slightly nudged downward the probability of an early closing, but not by much, and still favoring that scenario.

Updated: 433 PM 06 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

We try to avoid rapid adjustments and swings to our forecasts, but unfortunately, the removal of the winter storm warning requires it. School closings are based on both actual weather and human behavior, the latter of which is less predictable, but an adjustment to winter weather headlines in the absence of a shift in expected snow totals will significantly impact the decisions made by administrators.

Updated: 306 PM 06 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Probabilities have been adjusted upwards based on winter storm warning. 4-8 inches of snow is expected. I am being conservative with the full closing chance because we will likely only see marginal warning criteria.

Updated: 527 AM 05 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

A coastal storm will impact the region Wednesday. Current thinking is that at least 6 inches of snow will fall, causing either a full closing or early closing, depending on how much snow falls early in the day. The main uncertainty at this time is how much rain, if any, will mix in. These details will be elucidated in the coming day.

Updated: 309 PM 01 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

A nor’easter will impact the region tomorrow. Though the primary impacts will be high winds and heavy rain, some snow may mix in. Accumulations of more than an inch are not likely, but combined with other hazards, there is a chance for early closings tomorrow.

Updated: 633 PM 01 FEB 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Probabilities lowered slightly due to increased confidence in snowfall remaining under 3 inches.

Updated: 404 AM 31 JAN 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Some snow is expected Thursday night into Friday. Currently expecting only 1-2 inches, which skews probabilities in favor of no impacts.

Updated: 634 PM 01 FEB 2018

Discussion:

Probabilities lowered from increasing confidence that snowfall totals will remain under 3 inches.

Updated: 408 AM 31 JAN 2018

Discussion:

Some snow is expected Thursday night into Friday. Currently expecting only 1-2 inches, which skews probabilities in favor of no impacts.

Updated: 636 PM 01 FEB 2018

Discussion:

Probabilities lowered from increasing confidence that snowfall totals will remain under 3 inches.

Updated: 406 AM 31 JAN 2018

Discussion:

Some snow is expected Thursday night into Friday. Currently expecting only 1-2 inches, which skews probabilities in favor of no impacts.

Updated: 410 AM 31 JAN 2018

FULL CLOSING

Discussion:

Mesoscale banding of snow remains a great forecasting challenge. 6-8 inches of snow was observed locally, while models were only suggesting 1-2 would be seen. Initially a delay was announced (5:24 am) followed by an upgrade to a full closing (8:06 am).

Updated: 311 AM 30 JAN 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

A band of moderate snow has developed over central long island, which will result in higher accumulations than previously expected for tonight. There is a chance of a delay this morning at K-12 schools.

Updated: 646 PM 04 JAN 2018

FULL CLOSING

Discussion:

Classes are cancelled for Friday, January 5. Refer to the university website for more information.

Updated: 402 PM 04 JAN 2018

Discussion:

Based on further information regarding road conditions coming in, increasing the probability of a full closing to 40%.

Updated: 232 PM 04 JAN 2018

Discussion:

This is a rather difficult forecast. Snow will wrap up this evening, allowing for some time for snow removal. However, temperatures will drop overnight and roads will become icy. Given the overall picture and analogues to this situation, I am increasing the probability of either a closing or delay to 65%, favoring a delay over a full closing. There is a chance of a normal opening if snow tapers early and roads are treated quickly.

Updated: 731 PM 03 JAN 2018

Discussion:

There is a moderate chance for a delay Friday due to icy roads. Snow should end early enough Thursday for snow removal to be mostly complete by the Friday morning commute.

Updated: 900 PM 04 JAN 2018

FULL CLOSING

Discussion:

Classes are cancelled for Friday, January 5. Refer to the university website for more information.

Updated: 650 PM 04 JAN 2018

Discussion:

Increasing probability of a full closing to 70% based on poor status of snow removal, road treatment, and dropping temperatures.

Updated: 402 PM 04 JAN 2018

Discussion:

Based on further information regarding road conditions coming in, increasing the probability of a full closing to 40%.

Updated: 230 PM 04 JAN 2018

Discussion:

This is a rather difficult forecast. Snow will wrap up this evening, allowing for some time for snow removal. However, temperatures will drop overnight and roads will become icy. Given the overall picture and analogues to this situation, I am increasing the probability of either a closing or delay to 65%, favoring a delay over a full closing. There is a chance of a normal opening if snow tapers early and roads are treated quickly.

Updated: 731 PM 03 JAN 2018

Discussion:

There is a moderate chance for a delay Friday due to icy roads. Snow should end early enough Thursday for snow removal to be mostly complete by the Friday morning commute.

Updated: 642 PM 04 JAN 2018

FULL CLOSING

Discussion:

TVCSD is closed Friday, January 5. Refer to the district website for more information.

Updated: 357 PM 04 JAN 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Based on communications with TVCSD admin, increased probability of a full closing to 95%.

Updated: 226 PM 04 JAN 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

This is a rather difficult forecast. Snow will wrap up this evening, allowing for some time for snow removal. However, temperatures will drop overnight and roads will become icy. Given the overall picture and analogues to this situation, I am increasing the combined probability of either a closing or delay to 70%, favoring a delay. There is a chance of a normal opening if snow tapers early and roads are treated quickly.

Updated: 724 PM 03 JAN 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

There is a moderate chance for a delay Friday due to icy roads. Snow should end early enough Thursday for snow removal to be mostly complete by the Friday morning commute.

Updated: 713 PM 03 JAN 2018

FULL CLOSING

Discussion:

TVCSD is closed Thursday, January 4.

Updated: 554 PM 03 JAN 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Increasing probability of closing to 95% based on information from administration.

Updated: 1151 AM 03 JAN 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

A coastal storm will impact the region Thursday. Models are converging on 6-12 inches of snow for the region with possible blizzard conditions. Based on trends, we are increasing probability of a full closing to 80%.

Updated: 312 PM 02 JAN 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

A coastal storm will impact the region Thursday. The main question is whether or not the storm will track close enough for a high impact event, answers to which should unfold throughout today and tomorrow. Based on timing, this looks to be mainly a full closing or nothing scenario.