Updated: 513 PM 20 MAR 2018

FULL CLOSING

Discussion:

Full closing for SCC, Wednesday, March 21.

Updated: 340 PM 20 MAR 2018

Discussion:

This is shaping out to be a remarkable late season storm. 8-12 inches of snow is likely for Central Long Island, and the only thing that could significantly lower totals is if a lot more rain or sleet mixes in. Full closing probability is raised to 85% based on all data holding strong with this event.

Updated: 428 AM 20 MAR 2018

Discussion:

Following the usual pattern here…I am comfortable increasing the probability of a full closing to 75% based on the latest model guidance and the issuance of a winter storm warning. Time of snow onset is the main factor in question. Should school be open, an early closing is very probable.

Updated: 634 PM 19 MAR 2018

Discussion:

Details are coming into better focus regarding the upcoming storm. There is more confidence now in a significant snowfall accumulation across the area of 5 – 9 inches. Some computer models are suggesting that the heaviest snow may not fall until late afternoon or early evening Wednesday, with rain or sleet mixing in early in the storm. My current thinking, however, is that the winter storm watch will be upgraded to a warning and be in effect through even the earlier parts of the day. All of this considered, I will raise the probability of impacts to 80% with an even split between the full closing and delayed opening scenarios.

Updated: 335 PM 19 MAR 2018

Discussion:

The fourth nor’easter of the month will impact the region Wednesday. Numerical models have trended toward at least advisory level snow with some potential for warning level (> 6 inches). The timing of this event favors an early closing, seeing that snow intensity will increase throughout the morning and early afternoon. However, if the wetter solutions pan out, a full closing may happen.

Updated: 514 PM 20 MAR 2018

FULL CLOSING

Discussion:

Full closing for SBU, Wednesday, March 21.

Updated: 338 PM 20 MAR 2018

Discussion:

This is shaping out to be a remarkable late season storm. 8-12 inches of snow is likely for Central Long Island, and the only thing that could significantly lower totals is if a lot more rain or sleet mixes in. Full closing probability is raised to 85% based on all data holding strong with this event.

Updated: 425 AM 20 MAR 2018

Discussion:

Following the usual pattern here…I am comfortable increasing the probability of a full closing to 75% based on the latest model guidance and the issuance of a winter storm warning. Time of snow onset is the main factor in question. Should school be open, an early closing is very probable.

Updated: 633 PM 19 MAR 2018

Discussion:

Details are coming into better focus regarding the upcoming storm. There is more confidence now in a significant snowfall accumulation across the area of 5 – 9 inches. Some computer models are suggesting that the heaviest snow may not fall until late afternoon or early evening Wednesday, with rain or sleet mixing in early in the storm. My current thinking, however, is that the winter storm watch will be upgraded to a warning and be in effect through even the earlier parts of the day. All of this considered, I will raise the probability of impacts to 80% with an even split between the full closing and delayed opening scenarios.

Updated: 334 PM 19 MAR 2018

Discussion:

The fourth nor’easter of the month will impact the region Wednesday. Numerical models have trended toward at least advisory level snow with some potential for warning level (> 6 inches). The timing of this event favors an early closing, seeing that snow intensity will increase throughout the morning and early afternoon. However, if the wetter solutions pan out, a full closing may happen.

Updated: 339 PM 21 MAR 2018

EARLY CLOSING

Discussion:

As expected, TVCSD closed early today. Dismissal of the high school began as early as 940 am, immediately after the elementary school students were dropped off.

Updated: 625 AM 21 MAR 2018

CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL

NORMAL OPENING

Discussion:

Obviously, we underestimated the desire for snowdays to not be overused this year. TVCSD is opening normally, making this the first such time it has opened during an active winter storm warning since our records began in the 2010-2011 year. This is also the first time it has opened with universities being closed. As a correction to what has been previously stated, 4 snowdays (not 3) have been observed so far this year, and this would have been the 5th. While 3 other academic years in our record have overused snowdays (2012-2013, 2013-2014, 2014-2015), only the infamous year of 2012-2013 exceeded the 4th snowday, when Sandy and “Nemo” combined resulted in 9 full closings.

Despite our failure to predict a normal opening, I am confident that today will be a shortened day. High resolution models continue to show the onset of snow ramping up later this morning and afternoon as predicted and the overall forecast looks on track, so I am leaving the early closing probability at 90%.

Updated: 515 PM 20 MAR 2018

CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

As of 510 pm, a closing after school is announced. No other changes made from the previous forecast.

Updated: 337 PM 20 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

This is shaping out to be a remarkable late season storm. 8-12 inches of snow is likely for Central Long Island, and the only thing that could significantly lower totals is if a lot more rain or sleet mixes in. Full closing probability is raised to 90% based on all data holding strong with this event. No other changes made.

Updated: 418 AM 20 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Following the usual pattern here…I am comfortable increasing the probability of a full closing to 80% based on the latest model guidance and the issuance of a winter storm warning. Time of snow onset is the main factor in question. Should school be open, an early closing is very probable.

Updated: 630 PM 19 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Details are coming into better focus regarding the upcoming storm. There is more confidence now in a significant snowfall accumulation across the area of 5 – 9 inches. There are two factors that made me pause before flipping the numbers in favor a full closing. First, some computer models are suggesting that the heaviest snow may not fall until late afternoon or early evening Wednesday, with rain or sleet mixing in early in the storm. Second, to a lesser extent, 3 snowdays have already been observed this year, so they will only add another one if truly needed. Nevertheless, my current thinking is that the winter storm watch will be upgraded to a warning and be in effect through even the earlier parts of the day, essentially requiring a full closing.

Updated: 330 PM 19 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

The fourth nor’easter of the month will impact the region Wednesday. Numerical models have trended toward at least advisory level snow with some potential for warning level (> 6 inches). The timing of this event favors an early closing, seeing that snow intensity will increase throughout the morning and early afternoon. However, if the wetter solutions pan out, a full closing may happen.

Updated: 324 PM 19 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Removed early closing chance for Tuesday based on increased confidence that snow will not begin until at least late afternoon. Any snowfall on Tuesday should not stick or affect travel.

Updated: 302 AM 19 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Adjusting probabilities downward based on increased confidence that any snow to fall on Tuesday will be light and uneventful.

Updated: 337 PM 18 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Light snow is possible Tuesday afternoon. Given the nature and timing of this event, no delays are expected, and giving only a slight chance of early closings.

Updated: 524 AM 13 MAR 2018

FULL CLOSING

Discussion:

Three Village schools are closed today, March 13. Snow is expected to taper off this afternoon, allowing ample time for treatment of roadways, and no impacts for Wednesday are expected at this time. We will reassess this if snow totals are significantly higher than 6-8 inches.

Updated: 1245 PM 12 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

As usual, this remains a tricky forecast. A winter storm warning is now in effect, which essentially guarantees a full closing, but there is some question as to whether or not the warning will remain in place this far west given that a small change to the track of the low pressure may either make or break the 6 inch threshold for this area. Because this is a marginal case, i’ll give a nominal 70% chance of a full closing for now, splitting the remaining difference between a delayed and normal opening. Further changes are likely.

Updated: 446 PM 11 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Over the past 12 hours, models have come into better agreement that the cyclone will phase and rapidly deepen as it passes offshore. This would suggest at least 6 inches of snow, making a full closing the favored scenario. However, noting that some guidance still favors a track further east, my upward adjustments are on the conservative side for now.

Updated: 444 AM 11 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Another coastal storm is poised to impact the region Monday night into Tuesday. This is one of those tricky situations where the timing of the event splits the forecast. That is, while the bulk of the snow looks like it will fall during the overnight hours, it may not taper off until the afternoon, making a delay questionable even if the total accumulations would traditionally favor it. However, we note that the model trend over the past 24 hours has been toward at least advisory level snowfall, so I am comfortable starting this forecast off with a solid 70% chance of impacts for Tuesday. Given the aforementioned factors, I was considering an even split between the delay and full closing scenarios, but for now I will slightly favor the delay given that the current model consensus is for sub-warning level accumulations.

Updated: 805 PM 08 MAR 2018

DELAYED OPENING

Discussion:

There was a delayed opening today until 11 am.

Updated: 948 PM 07 MAR 2018

Discussion:

Increasing probability of a full closing to 35% based on power outage data.

Updated: 842 PM 07 MAR 2018

Discussion:

Radar and high resolution models confirm that moderate snow will not end until later tonight, and there are hints of mesoscale banding continuing. I have thus added a 15% chance of a full closing. The delay probability is unchanged.

Updated: 538 PM 07 MAR 2018

Discussion:

Increasing probability of a delay due to snow not ending until late tonight. Going with a 50% chance based on this being a threshold situation. Confidence in this forecast is lower than normal because this is a prediction of both weather and human behavior.

Updated: 320 AM 06 MAR 2018

Discussion:

There is a slight chance of a delay Thursday due to the possibility of significant snow continuing from Wednesday evening into the overnight hours, impacting the morning commute.

Updated: 946 PM 07 MAR 2018

DELAYED OPENING

Discussion:

As of 9 pm, a delayed opening until 11:30 am is announced. There is a 35% chance of an upgrade to a full closing based on current conditions.

Updated: 842 PM 07 MAR 2018

Discussion:

Radar and high resolution models confirm that moderate snow will not end until later tonight, and there are hints of mesoscale banding continuing. I have thus added a 15% chance of a full closing. The delay probability is unchanged.

Updated: 540 PM 07 MAR 2018

Discussion:

Increasing probability of a delay due to snow not ending until late tonight. Going with a 50% chance based on this being a threshold situation. Confidence in this forecast is lower than normal because this is a prediction of both weather and human behavior.

Updated: 319 AM 06 MAR 2018

Discussion:

There is a slight chance of a delay Thursday due to the possibility of significant snow continuing from Wednesday evening into the overnight hours, impacting the morning commute.

Updated: 950 PM 07 MAR 2018

DELAYED OPENING

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Increased probability of a full closing to 50% based on new power outage data. That’s about as high as i’m willing to go for day 2 of an event with under 12 inches of snow.

Updated: 838 PM 07 MAR 2018

DELAYED OPENING

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

As of 7:12 pm, a delayed opening is announced. There is a 35% chance of an upgrade to a full closing based on the current picture of radar, high resolution models, roadways, and power outages.

Updated: 534 PM 07 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

Based on snow not ending until late tonight, there is a solid chance for a delay tomorrow. These probabilities are based on limited analogues from previous situations – and confidence in this forecast is lower than normal because this is a prediction of both weather and human behavior.

Updated: 316 AM 06 MAR 2018

In the event that school does open…

Discussion:

There is a moderate chance of impacts Thursday due to the possibility of significant snow continuing from Wednesday evening into the overnight hours, impacting the morning commute.

Updated: 317 PM 07 MAR 2018

EARLY CLOSING

Discussion:

Classes after 4 pm are cancelled.

Updated: 437 AM 07 MAR 2018

Discussion:

Essentially removing full closing probability. There is a slight chance of an early closing due to heavy snowfall rates being expected during the evening commute.

Updated: 435 PM 06 MAR 2018

Discussion:

We try to avoid rapid adjustments and swings to our forecasts, but unfortunately, the removal of the winter storm warning requires it. School closings are based on both actual weather and human behavior, the latter of which is less predictable, but an adjustment to winter weather headlines in the absence of a shift in expected snow totals will significantly impact the decisions made by administrators.

Updated: 310 PM 06 MAR 2018

Discussion:

Probabilities have been adjusted upwards based on winter storm warning. 4-8 inches of snow is expected. I am being conservative with the full closing chance because we will likely only see marginal warning criteria.

Updated: 533 AM 05 MAR 2018

Discussion:

A coastal storm will impact the region Wednesday. Current thinking is that at least 6 inches of snow will fall, causing either a full closing or early closing, depending on how much snow falls early in the day. The main uncertainty at this time is how much rain, if any, will mix in. These details will be elucidated in the coming day.

Updated: 316 PM 07 MAR 2018

EARLY CLOSING

Discussion:

Classes after 1 pm are cancelled.

Updated: 436 AM 07 MAR 2018

Discussion:

Essentially removing full closing probability. There is a slight chance of an early closing due to heavy snowfall rates being expected during the evening commute.

Updated: 436 PM 06 MAR 2018

Discussion:

We try to avoid rapid adjustments and swings to our forecasts, but unfortunately, the removal of the winter storm warning requires it. School closings are based on both actual weather and human behavior, the latter of which is less predictable, but an adjustment to winter weather headlines in the absence of a shift in expected snow totals will significantly impact the decisions made by administrators.

Updated: 309 PM 06 MAR 2018

Discussion:

Probabilities have been adjusted upwards based on winter storm warning. 4-8 inches of snow is expected. I am being conservative with the full closing chance because we will likely only see marginal warning criteria.

Updated: 531 AM 05 MAR 2018

Discussion:

A coastal storm will impact the region Wednesday. Current thinking is that at least 6 inches of snow will fall, causing either a full closing or early closing, depending on how much snow falls early in the day. The main uncertainty at this time is how much rain, if any, will mix in. These details will be elucidated in the coming day.