| School: Three Village Central School District Impact Date: WED 21 MAR 2018 Hazard Type: WINTER Return to Home Page |
Updated: 339 PM 21 MAR 2018
EARLY CLOSING
Discussion:
As expected, TVCSD closed early today. Dismissal of the high school began as early as 940 am, immediately after the elementary school students were dropped off.
Updated: 625 AM 21 MAR 2018
CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL
NORMAL OPENING
| Probability of an Early Closing | 90% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 10% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 100% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 0% |
Discussion:
Obviously, we underestimated the desire for snowdays to not be overused this year. TVCSD is opening normally, making this the first such time it has opened during an active winter storm warning since our records began in the 2010-2011 year. This is also the first time it has opened with universities being closed. As a correction to what has been previously stated, 4 snowdays (not 3) have been observed so far this year, and this would have been the 5th. While 3 other academic years in our record have overused snowdays (2012-2013, 2013-2014, 2014-2015), only the infamous year of 2012-2013 exceeded the 4th snowday, when Sandy and “Nemo” combined resulted in 9 full closings.
Despite our failure to predict a normal opening, I am confident that today will be a shortened day. High resolution models continue to show the onset of snow ramping up later this morning and afternoon as predicted and the overall forecast looks on track, so I am leaving the early closing probability at 90%.
Updated: 515 PM 20 MAR 2018
CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL
| Probability of a Full Closing | 90% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 0% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 90% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 10% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 90% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 10% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 100% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 0% |
Discussion:
As of 510 pm, a closing after school is announced. No other changes made from the previous forecast.
Updated: 337 PM 20 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 90% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 0% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 90% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 10% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 90% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 5% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 95% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 5% |
Discussion:
This is shaping out to be a remarkable late season storm. 8-12 inches of snow is likely for Central Long Island, and the only thing that could significantly lower totals is if a lot more rain or sleet mixes in. Full closing probability is raised to 90% based on all data holding strong with this event. No other changes made.
Updated: 418 AM 20 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 80% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 0% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 80% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 20% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 90% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 5% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 95% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 5% |
Discussion:
Following the usual pattern here…I am comfortable increasing the probability of a full closing to 80% based on the latest model guidance and the issuance of a winter storm warning. Time of snow onset is the main factor in question. Should school be open, an early closing is very probable.
Updated: 630 PM 19 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 60% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 0% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 60% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 40% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 80% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 15% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 95% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 5% |
Discussion:
Details are coming into better focus regarding the upcoming storm. There is more confidence now in a significant snowfall accumulation across the area of 5 – 9 inches. There are two factors that made me pause before flipping the numbers in favor a full closing. First, some computer models are suggesting that the heaviest snow may not fall until late afternoon or early evening Wednesday, with rain or sleet mixing in early in the storm. Second, to a lesser extent, 3 snowdays have already been observed this year, so they will only add another one if truly needed. Nevertheless, my current thinking is that the winter storm watch will be upgraded to a warning and be in effect through even the earlier parts of the day, essentially requiring a full closing.
Updated: 330 PM 19 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 40% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 0% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 40% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 60% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 60% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 20% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 80% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 20% |
Discussion:
The fourth nor’easter of the month will impact the region Wednesday. Numerical models have trended toward at least advisory level snow with some potential for warning level (> 6 inches). The timing of this event favors an early closing, seeing that snow intensity will increase throughout the morning and early afternoon. However, if the wetter solutions pan out, a full closing may happen.
Snowday Central 