| School: Three Village Central School District Impact Date: TUE 13 MAR 2018 Hazard Type: WINTER Return to Home Page |
Updated: 524 AM 13 MAR 2018
FULL CLOSING
Discussion:
Three Village schools are closed today, March 13. Snow is expected to taper off this afternoon, allowing ample time for treatment of roadways, and no impacts for Wednesday are expected at this time. We will reassess this if snow totals are significantly higher than 6-8 inches.
Updated: 1245 PM 12 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 70% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 15% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 85% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 15% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
As usual, this remains a tricky forecast. A winter storm warning is now in effect, which essentially guarantees a full closing, but there is some question as to whether or not the warning will remain in place this far west given that a small change to the track of the low pressure may either make or break the 6 inch threshold for this area. Because this is a marginal case, i’ll give a nominal 70% chance of a full closing for now, splitting the remaining difference between a delayed and normal opening. Further changes are likely.
Updated: 446 PM 11 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 55% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 25% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 80% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 20% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
Over the past 12 hours, models have come into better agreement that the cyclone will phase and rapidly deepen as it passes offshore. This would suggest at least 6 inches of snow, making a full closing the favored scenario. However, noting that some guidance still favors a track further east, my upward adjustments are on the conservative side for now.
Updated: 444 AM 11 MAR 2018
| Probability of a Full Closing | 30% |
| Probability of a Delayed Opening | 40% |
| Probability of a Full Closing OR Delayed Opening | 70% |
| Probability of school opening at Normal Time | 30% |
In the event that school does open…
| Probability of an Early Closing | 0% |
| Probability of a Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of an Early Closing OR Closing After School | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open All Day | 100% |
Discussion:
Another coastal storm is poised to impact the region Monday night into Tuesday. This is one of those tricky situations where the timing of the event splits the forecast. That is, while the bulk of the snow looks like it will fall during the overnight hours, it may not taper off until the afternoon, making a delay questionable even if the total accumulations would traditionally favor it. However, we note that the model trend over the past 24 hours has been toward at least advisory level snowfall, so I am comfortable starting this forecast off with a solid 70% chance of impacts for Tuesday. Given the aforementioned factors, I was considering an even split between the delay and full closing scenarios, but for now I will slightly favor the delay given that the current model consensus is for sub-warning level accumulations.
Snowday Central 