| School: Three Village Central School District Impact Date: FRI 10 MAR 2017 Hazard Type: WINTER Return to Home Page |
Updated: 459 PM 09 MAR 2017
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING | 30% |
| Probability of a DELAYED OPENING | 55% |
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING | 85% |
| Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME | 15% |
In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING | 0% |
| Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 0% |
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY | 100% |
Discussion:
Adjustments being made to account for westward shift of heavier snowfall rates.
Updated: 233 PM 09 MAR 2017
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING | 10% |
| Probability of a DELAYED OPENING | 65% |
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING | 75% |
| Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME | 25% |
In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING | 0% |
| Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 0% |
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY | 100% |
Discussion:
Confidence is increasing for disruptive impacts to the morning commute. Increasing the probability of a delay to 65%. The only thing holding me from going higher is the fact that the overall timing of the event is not ideal for a delay, with the snow being spread across several hours lasting into early afternoon.
Updated: 543 AM 09 MAR 2017
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING | 10% |
| Probability of a DELAYED OPENING | 40% |
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING | 50% |
| Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME | 50% |
In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING | 0% |
| Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 0% |
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY | 100% |
Discussion:
Models tonight have robustly increased the amount of snow for Friday, with 4-6 inches appearing likely. Added a 10% chance of a full closing to take into account the small possibility of a warning level event. A delayed opening would be likely given the expected totals, but the timing of the event makes that option somewhat unfavorable since snow will continue to fall well after the morning commute is over. Given these factors, I am increasing the numbers but am hesitant to make the combined probability of impacts any greater than 50% right now. Further changes throughout the day are highly likely.
Updated: 324 PM 08 MAR 2017
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING | 0% |
| Probability of a DELAYED OPENING | 35% |
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING | 35% |
| Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME | 65% |
In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING | 0% |
| Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 0% |
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 0% |
| Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY | 100% |
Discussion:
Light snow is expected Friday resulting in accumulations of 1-3 inches. Given the low amounts and expected timing, there is a low probability of a delayed opening.
Snowday Central 