| School: Three Village Central School District Impact Date: THU 09 FEB 2017 Hazard Type: WINTER Return to Home Page |
Updated: 433 PM 08 FEB 2017
– FULL CLOSING
Discussion:
Three Village Schools are closed Thursday. Refer to the district website for additional information.
Updated: 218 PM 08 FEB 2017
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING | 95% |
| Probability of a DELAYED OPENING | 0% |
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING | 95% |
| Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME | 5% |
In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING | 60% |
| Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 20% |
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 80% |
| Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY | 20% |
Discussion:
With ever growing confidence in impacts all day tomorrow and consulting with Three Village administration, increasing the probability of a full closing to 95%.
Updated: 411 AM 08 FEB 2017
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING | 70% |
| Probability of a DELAYED OPENING | 0% |
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING | 70% |
| Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME | 30% |
In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING | 60% |
| Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 20% |
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 80% |
| Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY | 20% |
Discussion:
High confidence is now present for a warning-level snowfall, increasing the chance of a snow day Thursday. Removing the delayed opening probability because the heaviest snow will fall during and after the morning commute.
Updated: 339 PM 07 FEB 2017
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING | 55% |
| Probability of a DELAYED OPENING | 10% |
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING | 65% |
| Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME | 35% |
In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING | 60% |
| Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 20% |
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 80% |
| Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY | 20% |
Discussion:
Models are coming into better agreement of a heavy snowfall impact for Thursday, with enough accumulation to cancel school. Given this trend, I am adjusting the probabilities to slightly favor this scenario. A delayed opening is now unlikely given that the timing has shifted to have the heaviest impacts after the morning commute. Early closings would be likely, if school were to open, with my only reservation here being that the heaviest snow may be falling during the normal early dismissal time.
Stay tuned for further updates as changes are highly likely.
Updated: 301 AM 07 FEB 2017
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING | 25% |
| Probability of a DELAYED OPENING | 35% |
| Probability of a FULL CLOSING OR DELAYED OPENING | 60% |
| Probability of school opening at NORMAL TIME | 40% |
In the event that SCHOOL DOES OPEN…
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING | 20% |
| Probability of a CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 30% |
| Probability of an EARLY CLOSING OR CLOSING AFTER SCHOOL | 50% |
| Probability of school remaining open ALL DAY | 50% |
Discussion:
Predictions for Thursday are on the difficult side. As usual, there is uncertainty with regard to how much snow will accumulate. To complicate matters, however, is that it is not yet clear whether the heaviest impacts will occur before, during, or after the morning commute. Both of these factors will have obvious ramifications for how school may be impacted.
For now, I will go with a 25% chance of a warning-level event and school being closed. A delayed opening is more likely, but this would only happen if the heaviest snow occurs in the morning hours as current trends are pointing. If the timing shifts to a scenario where the heaviest snow will occur in the early afternoon, early closings may be on the table instead.
Snowday Central 